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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."